B2B Payments 2025 → 2028
A small-business field guide to the next four years of money-movement
1. Why this matters
Small businesses still mail millions of checks every week, yet the U.S. now runs two instant-payment rails (RTP & FedNow) and virtual-card spend is compounding by double digits. Meanwhile, stablecoins have leapt from crypto curiosity to a $36 billion B2B rail in 2025. The ground is shifting fast—this page distills the signal from the noise and offers a clear, data-backed outlook through 2028.
Legacy Systems
91% of finance teams still use paper checks despite high costs and fraud risks
Instant Rails
RTP and FedNow are transforming payment speed with 1,200+ participating banks
Digital Innovation
Stablecoins and virtual cards are creating new opportunities for efficient B2B payments
2. 2025 Snapshot
Paper Check Usage
Cost & fraud risk remain stubborn, especially in the <$50MM revenue tier.
Source: paymentsdive.comCheck/Cash Share
Value is shifting faster than behavior—volumes dropping while check habits linger.
Source: emarketer.comFedNow Banks
Coverage now rivals RTP and reaches SMBs via community banks and credit unions.
Source: fxcintel.comRTP Growth
Real-time payments crossing the chasm from payroll pilots to supplier payments.
Source: theclearinghouse.orgVirtual Card Spend
Rich rebates & embedded APIs are eating low-value ACH transactions.
Source: juniperresearch.comStablecoin Volume
Early but real adoption—largely cross-border payments and treasury sweeps.
Source: pymnts.com3. Four seismic themes (and the data behind them)
Drag today:
91% of SMB finance teams still touch checks, but those checks represent barely a third of outflows. The cost/fraud math is upside-down.
Trajectory:
With banks rolling out API-based lockbox conversions and carrier surcharges crossing $0.75 per envelope, check share is on pace to fall to ~15% of SMB payables by 2028.
Catalysts:
Remote treasury teams, ESG paper bans in corporate procurement, and surcharge-free digital lockbox services.
Coverage:
FedNow's 1,200+ participants plus RTP's 750+ give 90% of U.S. demand-deposit accounts technical access by mid-2026.
Forecast:
Deloitte's conservative scenario shows real-time rails displacing $19T in ACH & check B2B value by 2028—roughly 20% of all U.S. B2B payments.
SMB edge:
Pay-on-delivery discounts and auto-reconciliation are arriving first in SMB SaaS suites. Expect instant rails to be table-stakes for invoices under $10k by 2027.
Growth:
Juniper puts V-card spend at $11T by 2028, a 31% CAGR from 2024.
Headwinds:
Interchange pressure and Fed §1075 fees could trim rebate percentages, but integrated-pay tech keeps driving adoption in SaaS ERP modules.
2028 picture:
Two tiers emerge—High-rebate cards (tied to procurement platforms, 45-day float) and Low-fee cards (instant deposits via FedNow "push-to-card" hybrids).
Momentum:
Circle's blockbuster NYSE listing (USDC, $60B float) and PayPal's first enterprise PYUSD payment to Ernst & Young moved crypto from experiment to board-agenda.
Regulatory clarity:
Bipartisan House bill expected summer 2025 could formalize 1:1 reserve rules and open FDIC-insured passthrough accounts.
Projection:
If today's $36B B2B volume grows at just half the CAGR of stablecoin market-cap forecasts (ARK Invest ≈ 53% to 2030), B2B stablecoin flows top $500B by 2028.
4. 2025 → 2028 timeline
| Year | What changes | Impact on small businesses |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | FedNow reaches 1,500 FIs, PayPal & EY demo stablecoin pay; Visa & Mastercard extend RTP-to-card settlement. | Early adopters skip Friday wire cut-offs; first cross-border stablecoin pilots in marketplaces. |
| 2026 | USPS raises business-mail rates 12%; 40% of lockboxes offer same-day check-to-ACH conversion. | Paper checks drop below 25% of SMB outflows; AP staff redeployed to analytics. |
| 2027 | Virtual-card interchange tiers flatten; ISO 20022-native RTP APIs standardize remittance data. | Card rebates dip but reconciliation becomes click-free; suppliers start preferring instant rails. |
| 2028 | National stablecoin act passes; Deloitte's $19T displacement milestone hit; Juniper's $11T V-card mark reached. | 15% of payables still on check; 20% on instant rails; 35% ACH; 25% card; ~5% stablecoin/tokenized cash—the new "B2B payment mix." |
5. Playbook for SMB finance leaders
Start with the low-hanging checks.
Map weekly run-rates under $5k and shift them to ACH or RTP via your AP provider.
Negotiate virtual-card tiers now.
Lock in rebate floors before 2027 interchange compression.
Pilot instant rails inside payroll or expense reimbursement.
It forces bank connectivity and readies your ledger for ISO 20022.
Keep a sandbox wallet.
Even if you never hold USDC or PYUSD, receiving a stablecoin and auto-sweeping to USD builds muscle memory (and vendor buzz).
Benchmark quarterly.
Use the table above—your mix should trend toward the 2028 model. Lagging? Time to escalate with your bank/fintech stack.
6. Sources & further reading
Full list of articles, surveys, and forecasts used in this page (sorted by theme):